The COVID-19 crisis has transformed the value proposition that consumer-goods companies can offer to retailers. By mid-June, McKinsey’s consumer-sentiment survey found that more than 75 percent of Americans had tried new brands from new places or otherwise changed how they shop as a result of the crisis. Those who did venture into stores found the experience transformed by new rules on physical distancing, hygiene, and mask use. As consumers stayed home to stop the spread of the coronavirus, they used mobile apps and websites to buy a different mix of products than they had previously purchased in stores, with more focus on pantry staples and at-home occasions. 1 David Bishop, “Online grocery: New consumer research press release,” research conducted August 21–23, 2019, and March 23–25, 2020, Brick Meets Click, March 26, 2020,. The move to online shopping seemed to accelerate at warp speed, with US grocery’s penetration into e-commerce rising from 13 percent before the pandemic to more than 31 percent by the end of March. As we noted in a recent article, COVID-19 is amplifying a dozen trends that have been disrupting the industry for more than a decade.

Then COVID-19 became a global pandemic and everything changed. This article is a collaborative effort by Brandon Brown, Lindsay Hirsch, René Schmutzler, Jasper van Wamelen, and Matteo Zanin.

Consumer packaged goods inventory turns